{"id":648,"date":"2025-10-27T21:41:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T21:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bulliondata.com\/blog\/?p=648"},"modified":"2025-10-27T21:41:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T21:41:24","slug":"gold-still-underowned-why-surging-investment-demand-hasnt-exhausted-the-bull-case","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bulliondata.com\/blog\/gold-still-underowned-why-surging-investment-demand-hasnt-exhausted-the-bull-case\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Still Underowned: Why Surging Investment Demand Hasn\u2019t Exhausted the Bull Case"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Hook:<\/strong>\u00a0Gold has ripped to record highs, yet leading strategists argue that\u00a0<strong>gold is still underowned<\/strong>. That paradox is exactly why many bullion buyers, coin investors, and U.S. allocators see more upside ahead\u2014even after a historic run. As one State Street Investment Management analyst put it in early October, it\u2019s a matter of\u00a0<em>when<\/em>, not\u00a0<em>if<\/em>, the market tests $4,000 per ounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TL;DR:<\/strong>\u00a0Despite a powerful rally to fresh records above $3,900\/oz, multiple data points show room for additional participation: persistent ETF inflows, robust central-bank demand, and shifting Western investor behavior. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports the strongest first-half investment demand since 2020, with Asia\u2019s bar-and-coin buyers leading\u2014and U.S. retail coin\/bar buying still subdued. For investors, that gap is an opportunity, not a red flag.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why \u201cGold Still Underowned\u201d Matters Now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When gold vaulted past\u00a0<strong>$3,900\/oz<\/strong>\u00a0in early October, headlines focused on peak prints and profit-taking. But context matters: the breakout overlapped falling real-rate expectations, recurring policy uncertainty, and renewed safe-haven flows\u2014conditions that tend to support sustained strength rather than a blow-off top. Reuters captured the moment: spot hit a record near $3,959 as investors bought insurance against economic and political risks while wagering on further U.S. rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that setting,\u00a0<strong>State Street\u2019s Aakash Doshi<\/strong>\u00a0emphasized that\u2014despite heavy buying in September\u2014holdings across gold funds remain\u00a0<em>below<\/em>\u00a0their 2020 peak, and earlier this year GLD still saw outflows. Translation: participation isn\u2019t saturated. That\u2019s the heart of the\u00a0<strong>\u201cgold still underowned\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0thesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Expert view (paraphrased from Kitco interview):<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cThe rally has been driven increasingly by investment demand, but positioning isn\u2019t stretched. Gold can grind higher, even if the path is choppy toward $4,000.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Market Structure Behind the Rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Investment Demand Is Doing the Heavy Lifting<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0<strong>WGC\u2019s Q2 2025<\/strong>\u00a0report shows total demand rising 3% year-over-year to\u00a0<strong>1,249 tonnes<\/strong>, with the value of that demand surging\u00a0<strong>45%<\/strong>\u00a0to a record\u00a0<strong>US$132 billion<\/strong>\u2014driven chiefly by robust\u00a0<strong>ETF inflows<\/strong>\u00a0across consecutive quarters. In other words, investors\u2014not jewelry\u2014are the marginal price setter right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Central Banks Are a Persistent Bid<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Multiple outlets, including Reuters, detail how\u00a0<strong>central banks<\/strong>\u00a0have accumulated gold at historically elevated paces since 2022 (even with some moderation this year). Reserve diversification and sanction risk after Russia\u2019s reserve freeze continue to underwrite structural demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Asia\u2019s Physical Buyers vs. America\u2019s Slow H1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>WGC country data show\u00a0<strong>China and India<\/strong>\u00a0leading bar-and-coin demand in H1, while\u00a0<strong>U.S. bar and coin demand<\/strong> slumped\u00a0<strong>53% year-over-year<\/strong>\u00a0to just\u00a0<strong>9 tonnes in Q2<\/strong>\u2014the weakest since Q4 2019. That\u2019s an important backdrop: U.S.\u00a0<em>retail<\/em>\u00a0hesitancy can turn into late-cycle catch-up buying if momentum persists.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold Still Underowned: Where the Next Buyer Comes From<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Western ETFs:<\/strong>\u00a0After intermittent outflows earlier in 2025,\u00a0<strong>GLD and peers<\/strong>\u00a0attracted renewed inflows as the macro set turned more supportive. If new highs normalize, more model portfolios may lift target weights. (See GLD factsheets and issuer pages for current holdings and asset growth context.)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>U.S. retail bullion:<\/strong>\u00a0Coin\/bar investors who trimmed into strength may re-enter on dips, particularly if the Fed embraces a clearer easing path and the dollar tops out.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Institutional allocators:<\/strong>\u00a0CIOs who underweighted real assets in the AI-led equity cycle may use a consolidation to add low-correlation ballast. WGC\u2019s work on gold\u2019s portfolio role highlights those diversification benefits.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the Data Say (and Don\u2019t)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Confirmed by WGC (Q2 2025)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Investment<\/strong>\u00a0drove the quarter; ETFs had their strongest inflows since 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bar &amp; coin<\/strong>\u00a0demand posted the strongest first half since 2013, led by Asia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Jewelry<\/strong>\u00a0softened under record prices, especially in China and India.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Snapshot<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bar &amp; coin<\/strong>\u00a0slid to\u00a0<strong>9t<\/strong>\u00a0in Q2 (<strong>-53% y\/y<\/strong>), even as ETF interest revived\u2014evidence that Americans favored convenience exposure over physical in H1 2025.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Price Context<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Spot gold\u2019s\u00a0<strong>record<\/strong>\u00a0above\u00a0<strong>$3,900\/oz<\/strong>\u00a0occurred alongside fresh geopolitical and policy jitters and rising expectations for rate cuts\u2014classic tailwinds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expert Quotes &amp; Perspectives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Aakash Doshi, State Street Investment Management (paraphrased):<\/strong>\u00a0Gold is still\u00a0<strong>underowned<\/strong>; $4,000 is plausible over time, but volatility is part of the journey. A friendlier Fed and softer dollar would help.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>World Gold Council strategist (quoted via Reuters):<\/strong>\u00a0Investors are navigating policy shifts and global politics; gold is performing its role as a store of value amid uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Benefits and Risks for Buyers Right Now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Benefits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Diversification &amp; drawdown defense.<\/strong>\u00a0WGC research shows gold\u2019s low correlation to stocks and bonds is especially valuable when macro data are noisy and policy credibility is questioned.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Structural demand tailwinds.<\/strong>\u00a0Central-bank purchases and revived ETF interest support dips.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Underownership.<\/strong>\u00a0If positioning remains light vs. 2020 peaks, incremental inflows can have outsized price impact\u2014especially near new highs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Risks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Headline volatility.<\/strong>\u00a0Sharp retracements can follow record runs, particularly around Fed communications and labor\/inflation surprises.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real-rate shocks.<\/strong>\u00a0A hawkish repricing of yields\/dollar would likely cap near-term upside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Event myopia.<\/strong>\u00a0Don\u2019t over-attribute moves to a single theme; the mosaic\u2014rates, FX, geopolitics\u2014drives trends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to Position: A Practical Playbook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Define the sleeve.<\/strong>\u00a0Many diversified portfolios target\u00a0<strong>low- to mid-single-digit<\/strong>\u00a0allocations to gold, scaling up tactically when real rates fall and policy risk rises. (Institutional frameworks vary\u2014use IPS guidelines.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Choose your vehicle:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Physical (coins\/bars):<\/strong>\u00a0Direct, tangible, low counterparty risk; shop spreads.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ETFs (e.g., GLD):<\/strong>\u00a0Liquidity and ease; track holdings and issuer disclosures.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Minted products vs. generic bars:<\/strong>\u00a0Eagles\/Maples are highly liquid; 10-oz and 100-oz bars often deliver better per-ounce pricing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Add with staging.<\/strong>\u00a0Scale into positions (thirds or quarters) to respect volatility; rebalance after big up-moves.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mind the mix with silver.<\/strong>\u00a0If you can stomach higher beta, a modest\u00a0<strong>silver<\/strong>\u00a0sleeve can enhance upside in pro-gold regimes. (Silver\u2019s move toward decade highs alongside gold underscores that beta.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stay data-driven.<\/strong>\u00a0Watch\u00a0<strong>real yields<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>dollar trends<\/strong>, and\u00a0<strong>ETF flow<\/strong>\u00a0signals; they tend to lead media narratives.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF vs. Physical: Quick Comparison<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Attribute<\/th><th>ETF Exposure (e.g., GLD)<\/th><th>Physical Coins\/Bars<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Liquidity<\/td><td>High, intraday tradable<\/td><td>High at reputable dealers; settlement time varies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Costs<\/td><td>Expense ratio; trading commissions<\/td><td>Premiums over spot; storage\/insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Custody Risk<\/td><td>Fund\/trust structure<\/td><td>Self-custody or third-party vault<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Taxes<\/td><td>28% collectibles rate in U.S. (check specifics)<\/td><td>Same rate for physical; consult tax advisor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Use Case<\/td><td>Tactical\/strategic allocation<\/td><td>Long-term wealth reserve \/ portability<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tip:<\/strong>\u00a0Many U.S. investors blend both: a core physical base for resilience plus ETF \u201ctop-ups\u201d for tactical flexibility. Check issuer factsheets and audited reports for transparency.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold Still Underowned: What Could Change the Narrative?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A clearer Fed pivot.<\/strong>\u00a0If rate cuts come through faster than expected, real yields fall and gold\u2019s carry penalty shrinks\u2014pulling in late allocators.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fiscal concerns.<\/strong>\u00a0Deficit\/debt headlines can keep a support bid under gold as investors hedge policy credibility risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ETF leadership.<\/strong>\u00a0Sustained inflows would confirm Western participation catching up to Asia\u2019s physical demand, reinforcing the \u201cunderowned\u201d thesis.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Case Study: H1 vs. H2 2025 Behavior<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>H1 2025:<\/strong>\u00a0Asia\u2019s\u00a0<strong>bar &amp; coin<\/strong>\u00a0buyers (China, India) absorbed record prices;\u00a0<strong>U.S. bar &amp; coin<\/strong>\u00a0demand fell\u2014just\u00a0<strong>9t in Q2<\/strong>\u00a0(-53% y\/y), even as ETFs stabilized.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/gold-demand-trends\/us-gold-demand-trends-q2-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">l<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>H2 2025:<\/strong>\u00a0Momentum and macro drivers pushed spot above\u00a0<strong>$3,900<\/strong>; media attention broadened, and ETF participation rose\u2014the classic\u00a0<strong>late-cycle Western catch-up<\/strong>\u00a0pattern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FAQs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1) If gold is at records, isn\u2019t it \u201coverowned\u201d?<\/strong><br>Not necessarily. Fund holdings remain below 2020 peaks, and U.S. retail bar-and-coin demand is still soft compared to Asia\u2014evidence of\u00a0<strong>underownership<\/strong>, not excess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2) Will gold reach $4,000?<\/strong><br>Strategists argue the path is plausible as real rates ease and policy uncertainty lingers, but expect\u00a0<strong>volatility<\/strong>\u00a0on the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3) Should I buy ETFs or physical?<\/strong><br>Both have roles. ETFs offer\u00a0<strong>ease\/liquidity<\/strong>; physical provides\u00a0<strong>tangible, no-counterparty<\/strong>\u00a0ownership. Many investors blend the two. Review factsheets\/holdings and compare spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4) What about central-bank buying\u2014still a driver?<\/strong><br>Yes. While pace can ebb and flow, official-sector buying remains\u00a0<strong>structurally strong<\/strong>\u00a0in the post-sanction era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5) Is U.S. demand really that weak?<\/strong><br>For\u00a0<strong>Q2 2025<\/strong>, yes: bar and coin demand fell to\u00a0<strong>9t<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>-53%<\/strong>\u00a0y\/y\u2014lowest since\u00a0<strong>Q4 2019<\/strong>\u2014even as ETFs improved. That\u2019s part of the opportunity as sentiment turns.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion: Underowned, Not Over<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<strong>gold still underowned<\/strong>&nbsp;narrative rests on facts, not feelings: record prices alongside sub-peak fund holdings, Asia-led physical demand, and a delayed Western retail response. With macro tailwinds (rate-cut expectations, fiscal worries, geopolitical uncertainty) still in place\u2014and with gold\u2019s portfolio diversifier role well documented\u2014the case for a disciplined allocation remains intact. Use volatility to your advantage: scale into positions, blend physical with ETFs as appropriate, and let&nbsp;<strong>real-rate trends<\/strong>\u2014not headlines\u2014steer your long-term plan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hook:\u00a0Gold has ripped to record highs, yet leading strategists argue that\u00a0gold is still underowned. That paradox is exactly why many bullion buyers, coin investors, and U.S. allocators see more upside ahead\u2014even after a historic run. As one State Street Investment Management analyst put it in early October, it\u2019s a matter of\u00a0when, not\u00a0if, the market tests &#8230; <a title=\"Gold Still Underowned: Why Surging Investment Demand Hasn\u2019t Exhausted the Bull Case\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/bulliondata.com\/blog\/gold-still-underowned-why-surging-investment-demand-hasnt-exhausted-the-bull-case\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Gold Still Underowned: Why Surging Investment Demand Hasn\u2019t Exhausted the Bull Case\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bullion-investment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Gold Still Underowned: Why Surging Investment Demand Hasn\u2019t Exhausted the Bull Case - Bullion Data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bulliondata.com\/blog\/gold-still-underowned-why-surging-investment-demand-hasnt-exhausted-the-bull-case\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Still Underowned: Why Surging Investment Demand Hasn\u2019t Exhausted the Bull Case - Bullion Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hook:\u00a0Gold has ripped to record highs, yet leading strategists argue that\u00a0gold is still underowned. That paradox is exactly why many bullion buyers, coin investors, and U.S. allocators see more upside ahead\u2014even after a historic run. As one State Street Investment Management analyst put it in early October, it\u2019s a matter of\u00a0when, not\u00a0if, the market tests ... 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